Blogs

When will the next recession be?

17th August 2015

The following paragraph is taken from an article written by economist Roger Martin-Fagg,  he mentions the major discontinuity of the recent recession and how the financial system works on past models of behavior. This recession tore up all the rule books and therefore there isn’t really any data to base the future model on however, if we take Roger’s view, then at least we have the next five years to get our heads down and  make some money!

The big forecasting models take time series data, smooth it, and then extrapolate into the future. So the forecast future is a replication of the past. When the future is similar to the past this works well and forecasters can often claim accuracy. However when there is a major discontinuity such as that experienced since 2008, we have to start again from base zero. This is because a discontinuity changes rules, behaviours and relative prices. For example if you told a Brit in 1980 that in 2010 base rate would be 0.5%, he or she would consider you were bonkers! My view is base zero was 2013. We typically enjoy a 7 year cycle. We have five good growth years ahead. I think you should pay no attention to those who say the next recession will begin next year, caused by rising interest rates.

North East Precision Engineers Seeks CNC Machinists to Continue Impressive Growth Plans

7th February 2014

The Northern Echo: ALM’s new production manager Tim Walker (left) and production engineer John Blackburn with the firm’s new £160,000 lathe machine.

Tim Walker, Production Manager & John Blackburn, Production Engineer in front of the new £160,000 Mazak Lathe

The Northern Echo recently published this article on ALM Engineering Solutions, focusing on the recruitment drive for Skilled CNC Machinists. The North East based precision engineering company which specialises in the manufacture of  Oil & Gas, Aerospace, Automotive and Nuclear machined components is currently taking on an additional four machinists to assist in its expansion. Read the full article here.

Latest News

Older News

Latest Blog Posts

Aug 17
Older Blog Posts

Quick Links

  • NPI Process
  • Rapid Response Real Time Info
  • Overviews
  • Components

Latest Tweets

Newsletter Signup